The Election
Democracy scholars begin tracking unprecedented changes
A New Administration Takes Shape
The November 2024 election marks a turning point. Before the new administration even takes office, democracy scholars sound alarms. The Bright Line Watch survey, a project tracking democratic health since 2017, records the steepest decline in its history.
This 19-point drop represents the sharpest decline in democratic health ever recorded by political scientists in a major democracy. To put it in perspective: Hungary's slide into competitive authoritarianism took a decade. This happened in months.
Day One Actions
A flurry of executive orders reshape federal policy
Withdrawals and Dismissals
Within hours of taking office, the administration withdraws from the Paris Climate Agreement (for the second time), the World Health Organization, and begins dismantling USAID. Eighteen Inspectors General are fired simultaneously, a direct challenge to the Inspector General Act of 1978, which requires 30 days' notice to Congress with cause. Schedule F is reinstated, creating a pathway to replace career civil servants with political appointees.
"He shall take Care that the Laws be faithfully executed." — Article II, Section 3, U.S. Constitution
Inspectors General exist to ensure the executive branch faithfully executes the law, investigating waste, fraud, and abuse within agencies. Firing them en masse eliminates the independent watchdogs Congress created to provide oversight.
The Tariff Shock Begins
"The Congress shall have Power To lay and collect Taxes, Duties, Imposts and Excises..." — U.S. Constitution, Article I, Section 8
February 2025 brings the first major tariffs: 25% on Canada and Mexico, 10% on China. These are implemented using emergency powers under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), bypassing Congress's constitutional authority over trade. Courts will later rule this exceeded statutory limits.
"Liberation Day"
The largest tariff increase since the Great Depression
The Global Trade War Escalates
On April 2, the administration announces sweeping tariffs on 60+ countries. The event is branded "Liberation Day." Steel and aluminum tariffs hit 50%. Canada faces 35%. The Treasury Department projects $1.4 trillion in new tariffs over the next decade.
"The United States is no longer a reliable partner."
— Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney
Allies scramble to respond. Canada announces CA$125 billion in retaliatory tariffs. The European Union unveils €800 billion for defense independence. Eighteen world leaders gather in London to coordinate support for Ukraine, notably without U.S. participation.
The Price Increases Begin
Businesses initially absorb most tariff costs, depleting pre-tariff inventory and accepting lower margins. But this is temporary. By late 2025, consumers start feeling the impact.
The Labor Shock
Mass enforcement operations transform the workforce
Agricultural Collapse Begins
Agricultural employment drops 6.5% from March to July: 155,000 workers in four months. Construction employment stalls in high-enforcement states while growing elsewhere. The hospitality sector's workforce growth plummets from 1.5% to 0.2%.
By October, the Labor Department acknowledges what economists had been warning: the immigration crackdown is causing worker shortages and potentially food shortages. The Agriculture Secretary initially called these concerns "hypothetical."
The First Negative Migration in Decades
An American Enterprise Institute working paper reveals that 2025 will likely see negative net migration: more people leaving the United States than arriving), something that hasn't happened in decades.
"Lowering labor force by 1 million will reduce participation rate, lower job growth, and increase wage inflation, particularly in construction, agriculture, and hospitality. In short, deportations are a stagflationary impulse."
— Torsten Sløk, Apollo Chief Economist
The Hottest Years
Climate records shatter as the U.S. exits global cooperation
The Temperature Record
2024 becomes the hottest year in recorded history. 2023 was the second hottest. 2025 is on track to be second or third. The last 12 years have been the 12 hottest on record.
Unprecedented Withdrawals
In January 2026, the administration withdraws from 66 international bodies, including the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), the foundational 1992 treaty that every nation on Earth has ratified, and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
The United States becomes the first and only country in the world to announce withdrawal from the UNFCCC. This includes treaties ratified by the Senate under both Republican and Democratic administrations. The IPCC, which the U.S. has funded at ~30% of its budget since Ronald Reagan helped create it in 1988, is left scrambling.
The Venezuela Operation
The first U.S. military seizure of foreign leadership in decades
Operation Capture
"The Congress shall have Power... To declare War." — Article I, Section 8, U.S. Constitution
In the early hours of January 3, U.S. military forces capture Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife. The operation involves over 150 aircraft in what officials describe as an "air, land, and sea" assault. A CIA team had tracked Maduro's movements, and the president received a phone call demanding surrender a week prior.
Maduro is transported to New York to face drug trafficking charges. The president announces the U.S. will "run" Venezuela "until a safe transition can occur." Congress was not consulted, notified, or asked to authorize the military operation.
"Does this mean any large country can indict the ruler of a smaller adjacent country and take that person out? This would lead to total chaos."
— Senator Mark Warner
Oil as Stated Motive
Unlike previous interventions, the economic motivation is stated openly. The president declares that Venezuelan oil revenues will go to "the Venezuelan people, U.S. oil companies, and the United States of America in the form of reimbursement."
María Corina Machado, the democratic opposition leader who won the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize, is dismissed. Instead, the administration partners with Delcy Rodríguez, a Maduro loyalist.
The Minneapolis Crisis
Federal agents, state forces, and a constitutional confrontation
The Killing of Renee Good
January 6: DHS announces its largest immigration enforcement operation ever: 2,000 agents deployed to Minneapolis-St. Paul.
January 7: ICE agent Jonathan Ross shoots and kills Renee Nicole Good, a 37-year-old American citizen, writer, poet, and mother of three. Good was in her vehicle when shot. DHS claims she was "weaponizing" the vehicle to run over an agent.
"Having seen the video myself, I want to tell everybody directly: that is bullshit. To ICE: get the fuck out of Minneapolis."
— Minneapolis Mayor Jacob Frey
Good's killing is the ninth shooting by ICE agents since September 2025, and the fifth fatality. An eyewitness describes how "people in our neighborhood have been terrorized by ICE for six weeks."
Constitutional Standoff
"The powers not delegated to the United States by the Constitution, nor prohibited by it to the States, are reserved to the States respectively, or to the people." — Tenth Amendment, U.S. Constitution
The situation escalates rapidly:
- Governor Walz mobilizes the Minnesota National Guard
- The Pentagon orders ~1,500 active-duty soldiers (11th Airborne Division) to prepare for deployment
- DOJ opens investigations into Walz and Frey for "obstruction of federal law enforcement"
- 12+ federal prosecutors resign after DOJ Civil Rights Division declines constitutional investigation
- Federal judge issues preliminary injunction restricting agents' use of force
Federal agents use tear gas and pepper spray against protesters. The Minneapolis Fire Department reports a six-month-old baby and a child are hospitalized from the gas. A 21-year-old protester in Santa Ana loses her vision permanently after being struck by a DHS projectile at close range.
"We Can't Have That in America"
As 3,000+ federal agents remain deployed and the president raises the possibility of invoking the Insurrection Act, Mayor Frey captures the stakes:
"I never thought in a million years we would be invaded by our own federal government. On the prospect of state National Guard and local police facing off against ICE agents and active-duty troops in Minneapolis. We can't have that in America."
— Mayor Jacob Frey
Bruce Springsteen dedicates "The Promised Land" to Renee Good: "If you believe in the power of law and that no one stands above it, if you stand against heavily-armed masked federal troops invading an American city, using gestapo tactics against fellow citizens..."
The Greenland Crisis
"The greatest transatlantic crisis in generations"
Military Option "Always Available"
Fresh from the Venezuela operation, the administration intensifies demands for Greenland. The timeline accelerates:
- Dec 2025: Special envoy appointed to "make Greenland part of the U.S."
- Jan 2026: White House confirms "utilizing U.S. military is always an option"
- Jan 18: 10% tariffs on Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, UK, Netherlands, Finland, rising to 25% on June 1
- Jan 20: "No going back", won't rule out leaving NATO to obtain Greenland
Europe Responds
Denmark's intelligence service lists the United States as a threat to national security for the first time, alongside Russia and China. European NATO members deploy troops to Greenland. Eight European leaders issue a joint statement affirming Danish sovereignty.
"If the United States chooses to attack another NATO country militarily, then everything stops. That is, including our NATO."
— Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen
Polls show 85% of Greenlanders oppose U.S. acquisition. The administration's position: "Iron laws" of "strength, force, power" mean the U.S. can take what it wants.
The Information War
Press freedom under sustained assault
"Congress shall make no law... abridging the freedom of speech, or of the press." — First Amendment, U.S. Constitution
The Numbers
The 170 assaults nearly equal the previous three years combined. Many occur during coverage of immigration enforcement protests.
The FBI Raid
"The right of the people to be secure in their persons, houses, papers, and effects, against unreasonable searches and seizures, shall not be violated." — Fourth Amendment, U.S. Constitution
January 14, 2026: FBI agents raid the home of Hannah Natanson, a 29-year-old Washington Post reporter covering the administration's reshaping of government. They seize her phone, personal computer, Garmin watch, and a Post-owned computer.
"It's hard not to see this as an effort to intimidate not just journalists, but the sources that would communicate with them."
— Jameel Jaffer, Knight First Amendment Institute
Systemic Targeting
The Department of Justice reinstates rules allowing secret pursuit of journalists' records in leak investigations. The FCC opens probes into NPR, PBS, ABC, NBC, and CBS. Voice of America, Radio Free Europe, and Radio Free Asia are defunded or dismantled.
Choose a Trajectory
Select a scenario to see how the next four years might unfold
Democratic Correction
Institutions hold. 2026 midterms serve as decisive check. Courts' orders are obeyed. International pressure forces retreat.
Significant Conflict
Federal-state standoffs escalate beyond political channels. Sustained unrest. Potential international crisis.
Critical Variables: Next 30 Days
- Does Minneapolis escalate or de-escalate?
- Are Governor Walz and Mayor Frey indicted?
- Does the president invoke the Insurrection Act?
- Do Greenland tariffs trigger European counter-escalation?
- Does the Supreme Court rule on tariff authority?